Mearsheimer: Trump is "Boxed In" / War with Iran Has No "Happy Ending" for the U.S.

In the latest episode of "Judging Freedom," hosted by former Fox News analyst Andrew Napolitano on Tuesday, John Mearsheimer, the distinguished professor at the University of Chicago and pioneer of "Neo-Realism," discussed the Trump administration’s diplomatic deadlock regarding Iran and the dire consequences of any military confrontation.

The Israeli Trap; A Barrier to a Tehran-Washington Deal

Addressing Trump’s transactional approach, Mearsheimer noted: "If it were just Iran and Trump, a deal could be easily reached because Trump does not view Iran as a direct existential threat to the United States. However, the problem is that he has boxed himself into a corner and cannot ignore the pressures and demands from Israel."

He added: "Israel demands 'zero enrichment' and the total dismantling of Iran's nuclear and missile infrastructure—demands the Iranians will never agree to. This conflict of interest has effectively paralyzed the diplomatic space."

The Military Option; A Mirage

Criticizing hawkish views, the senior strategist described the military option against Iran as a "mirage," asserting: "We have no effective military option regarding Iran. Attacking Iran will neither result in regime change nor permanently eliminate its missile capabilities. I cannot envision a story that ends in a 'happy ending' for the United States if it goes to war with Iran."

Mearsheimer pointed to Iran’s deterrent power and the IRGC Navy's recent drills in the Strait of Hormuz, stating: "By conducting exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians sent a clear message to Trump: the cost of any adventurism will be the closure of the world's primary energy artery. Trump is well aware of—and fears—the economic fallout of such an event."

Eastern Powers as Tehran’s Shield

The University of Chicago professor also highlighted the shift in the global balance of power: "Unlike past decades, Iran is no longer alone. Russia, through new strategic alliances, and China, due to its heavy dependence on Iranian energy, will not allow the fundamental collapse or weakening of the country. By next year, the supportive roles of Beijing and Moscow in this equation will become even more pronounced."

He concluded by noting that nearly all regional actors and global powers loathe the prospect of war, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being the sole figure attempting to "drag Washington into a conflict that holds no strategic benefit for the United States."

Diplomatic Context; Progress in Geneva

Mearsheimer’s remarks come hours after the conclusion of the second round of indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. in Geneva.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi stated following the talks: "We were able to reach a general agreement on a set of guiding principles. In my view, good progress was made compared to the previous session, and we now have a clear and positive path forward." He added that while no specific date has been set for a third round, both sides will work on draft texts of a potential agreement to be exchanged later.

The Omani Foreign Ministry also issued a statement, noting: "The indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. concluded with tangible progress, paving the way for their imminent continuation."