Your 2018 Oscars viewing guide
Tehran(KNA) : Here's what you need to know about the ceremony:
It's a sad state of affairs when legions of supercilious, toff-ish, Oxford-educated, rampant redcoat Brits, not to mention virtually every British cab, bus and truck driver, know more about what's going to happen at the 2018 Oscars (after Jimmy Kimmel's monologue) than Americans do.
And it's even more tragically ironic that the betting in London on the Oscars is so heavy. But it's a fact that the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (the BAFTAs), held two weeks ago, are an uncanny Oscar-nod prognosticator for London bookies and their thousands of players. Who play the Oscars most aggressively.
Ergo, for American players and at-home couch bettors, this tactic is key: Before diving into your Sunday pools, take a long, hard look at what the money in the hands of our beloved gimlet-eyed London bookies is saying. Forget the travel ban and the steel tariffs, what say we make America great again by taking the Oscars back. They're our Oscars, darn it. Get to work betting, America!
All odds quoted below come from the UK's Oddschecker megatote, the online hunting dog/aggregator of all British bookies' odds.
We're going to go with the major categories on offer in London here only, as the London bookies themselves do, figuring that all the inside-baseball technical Oscars are better left to the sensibilities of Americans.
To wit, by category, pending an entertaining screw-up by PriceWaterhouse, here's what the London money is saying will happen on Sunday:
The clear favorite in Great Britain mirrors the clear favorite in the US, namely Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, henceforth in this dispatch, 3BB. The crucial note for the American player here is that the British bookies know this, and are cutting the odds very fine, hovering between 10/11 and 11/10, with two bookies down even finer, at 19/20 and 21/20, respectively. What the Brits are telling us is that only huge money down will get you about one beer on this bet.
Or! Call your mother's distant cousins in London and have them put a few thousand down on 3BB. Then you'll maybe get a dinner out. The Shape of Water (SoW) is running second as expected, at 6/4 and 15/8 on the Oddschecker mega-board.
Sadly, for us, the most 'American' of offerings, Spielberg's The Post, starring the ultimate American icons, Streep and Hanks, is languishing in the British view from 50/1 to 150/1, just a hair above Phantom Thread.
In this category, again, as noted from the BAFTA results, the American hivemind is not much different from that of our hard-nosed bookie brethren in London. It's all about Frances McDormand forever, God bless her and her amazing work.
But in London, it's always about the cut and the play of the swordfight, so what the money is telling us about this bet is interesting. She's sitting super-duper low, from 1/25 (at Bet365) up to 1/12 (at Coral), which is to say, get your London cousins to call Coral, now, darnit! Saoirse Ronan is running a distant second, and Sally Hawkins behind that at an average 12/1 and 20/1, respectively. Margot Robbie in I, Tonya? The Brit money says: Fuggedaboutit. She's running 16/1 to 25/1 and looks to go lower. As for the best American actress, hands-down, in generations, Meryl Streep? She's languishing at 100/1 for The Post.
Why does everybody care about this category? Well, for one thing, it means millions, if not hundreds thereof, for any producer/director/and-or actor in the mix. But for the London black-cab drivers and hardy UK truckers whose money is here in the tote, it means more beer. More rounds for the blokes at the local. (Take the hint: For the last thousand years of the British monarchy and Empire, there has been no more passionate reason for betting in England than that.) So, what's the London money saying? Winston Churchill trumps all, bay-bee. WWII. The Battle of Britain. All that. The absolute best price you can get right now in London on (the most deserving) Gary Oldman is 1/20, which is to say, call your cousins and put a thousand pounds on him and buy them a bottle of champers. Oldman goes down from there, to 1/41, which is... not worth the time, or the dime.
Paging Guillermo del Toro! Mr. del Toro, please answer the red courtesy phone! London's most discerning money handlers have shorted Mr. del Toro to a fare-thee-well, from 1/10 to 1/14. The best you can do in this category is to go long, and differently, to Jordan Peele, at 40/1 tonight in London. That is a fun bet. If it doesn't screw up your own Oscar-party evening's end megatote, or even if it does, go for it. Too much fun to pass up, Mr. Nolan.
Best Supporting Actress:
As we might expect, Allison Janney's chances in London are very, very high, and London's betting on her reflects it. At this writing she's sitting at 3/19 and 1/8. The closest competitor is of course Laurie Metcalf, at 9/2 and at 6/1, followed by Mary J. Blige at 20/1 and 25/1.
Best Supporting Actor:
It can be that the British are attempting a complete mind-body-and-soul takeover of Hollywood, which is a conspiracy that we need to keep an eye on. It's a multi-decade affair, using the English language and their superior education and elocution. But in this category, Sam Rockwell, an actual American, seems to have the lead in the British betting hivemind, at 1/10, and it's heartening to report that the next up, Willem Dafoe, an American, clocks in at a respectable 15/2. The estimable Christopher Plummer weighs in at the end at 20/1.